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Economic expectations for the year 2020

Within the last four years, the economic growth rate has doubled from 3.4% to 7% mainly due to strategic initiatives in the agriculture, services, and industrial sectors aided by fiscal discipline, growth in revenue mobilisation and containment of expenditures within targets.

As at September 2019 inflation was 7.6% compared to 15.4% in December 2016, fiscal deficit fell below 5% of GDP for three consecutive years and the trade deficit improved from US$1.8 billion in 2016 to a surplus of US$2.6 billion in August 2019.

The foundation for accelerated growth has been laid for 2020 and beyond. The 2020 budget has therefore been themed “Consolidating the Gains for Growth, Jobs and Prosperity for All”. The government intends to drive this agenda through eight (8) strategic pillars in line with the President’s Consolidated Programme and the Ghana Beyond Aid vision:

Domestic Revenue Mobilisation;

Business Regulatory Reforms;

Intensified Drive for Foreign Direct Investment;

Digitisation;

Accelerated Infrastructure Development;

International Financial Services Centre;

Enhance Financial Support to Local Enterprises; and

The 2020 budget is the first, election-year budget to be prepared under the Fiscal Responsibility Act (2018), which places a 5% cap on fiscal deficit, and it is also the first, since 2015, to be done without an IMF programme. This, therefore, puts pressure on the Government to adhere to its fiscal policy framework.

The overall GDP growth is projected at 6.8% (including oil) in 2020 owing to the expected growth in agriculture, services and industrial sector. Government has been cautious with the growth forecast in the agriculture sector compared to previous years. The conservative growth forecast of 5.1% can be attributed to the 2019 underperformance in the fisheries subsector. The subsector growth was constrained to 3.30% in 2019 compared to a targeted growth of 13.80%.

By: Naa Anyema

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